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2024-03-01

Progression of Winter Storms across the Contiguous US

This winter has featured many winter storms over the contiguous US that have swept from the west coast to the east coast. In previous posts, I have discussed basic intuitions for why different climates occur in different regions [LINK], my assessment of the deficiencies of the Trewartha climate classification system [LINK], what I would change about the Trewartha climate classification system [LINK], how my proposed changes to the Trewartha climate classification system can be applied to understand what climates occur where in middle latitudes [LINK], why popular understanding of the effects of the Gulf Stream over the Atlantic Ocean on the climate of Europe is incorrect in many ways [LINK], and why different climates occur in coastal locations on different coasts at different latitudes [LINK]. These posts have suggested, among other things, that many winter storms on the east coast of the US would come from warm moist air from over the Gulf of Mexico or mild moist air from over the Atlantic Ocean colliding with cold dry air over the continent, but these collisions would be somewhat more sporadic because the prevailing westerlies, which would have dumped moisture primarily over the west coast, would be weak & dry by the time they reach the east coast. Thus, it is somewhat surprising to me that these winter storms seem to be driven by the prevailing westerlies over the continent. The following is my attempt to intuitively explain, based only on sea-/surface-level temperatures, air pressures, and air flows, why this happens. Again, I am not a trained climatologist or meteorologist; I can't guarantee that this information is accurate, and I can only say that my intuitions seem through my limited understanding to align with superficial aspects of more detailed explanations.

Why this happens in North America

This happens in North America mainly because of the arrangement of landmasses & seas/oceans. In the winter half of the year in North America, the subtropical ridge is strongest around 30 degrees in latitude (north of the equator) to the west of the continents of North America in the Pacific Ocean & of Africa in the Atlantic Ocean. Prevailing westerlies generated by the subtropical ridge over the Pacific Ocean bring moisture to the west coast of the US and turn clockwise due to the Coriolis force, meaning that around the time the prevailing westerlies reach the Rocky Mountains, they may have turned more toward the Gulf of Mexico, though this is not guaranteed to happen every time. In doing so, the prevailing westerlies, by this point colder & drier, can pick up warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico. This clockwise turn by the Coriolis force is reversed within the Gulf of Mexico by southerly winds coming from air coming clockwise off of the subtropical ridge over the Atlantic Ocean, so this newly warmed & moistened air turns toward the east coast of the US, bringing moisture there before moving east & turning clockwise (again due to the Coriolis force) over the Atlantic Ocean toward Europe. This is how the subtropical ridge can function like a conveyor belt of moisture. Essentially, the continent of North America & the Atlantic Ocean are both narrow enough (with respect to the ranges of longitudes), and the Gulf of Mexico with warm water is favorably placed, to ensure that this can happen. That said, the prevailing westerlies will not always turn clockwise enough to go over the Gulf of Mexico and then counterclockwise enough to go over the east coast of the US, which is why the prevailing westerlies are more likely to bring moisture to the west coast of the US but only sporadically do so for the east coast of the US.

I should clarify that the storms that sweep across the contiguous US are often localized highly mobile systems of low pressure. They internally turn counterclockwise, but the motion of the centers of these storms is affected by the aforementioned prevailing westerlies coming from the subtropical ridges over the eastern Pacific Ocean & Atlantic Ocean in the northern hemisphere.

Why this does not happen in other continents

This does not happen in other continents because of unfavorable arrangements of landmasses & seas/oceans. I will give details for each continent in turn.

Eurasia

In the northern hemisphere, Eurasia & the Pacific Ocean are much wider (with respect to the range of longitudes) than North America & the Atlantic Ocean, so the conveyor belt effect is lost there; this point is amplified by the much stronger system of high pressure forming due to the settling of cold dry air over the continent in the winter half of the year. Additionally, the Indian Ocean (which would supply warm moist air) is not far enough from the equator and there are too many mountains in between for the Indian Ocean to function analogously to the Gulf of Mexico.

South America

The east coast of South America in the middle latitudes would refer to the east coast of Argentina. There is no major body of water immediately to the north (toward the equator) of Argentina analogous to the Gulf of Mexico, so although the subtropical ridge over the Atlantic Ocean to the west of South Africa is somewhat close by, the prevailing westerlies are largely dry by the time they reach Argentina and have no way of replenishing moisture & warmth before reaching the east coast.

Africa

In the southern hemisphere, Africa does not extend much into the middle latitudes. Thus, this issue is moot there.

Oceania

Oceania does not extend much into the middle latitudes and is surrounded by much more water, keeping the temperatures more moderate anyway (so there is less opportunity for big temperature contrasts between land & water to form, which would lead to stronger winter storms). Additionally, the Pacific Ocean in the southern hemisphere is much wider (with respect to the range of longitudes) than the Atlantic Ocean in the northern hemisphere, so the conveyor belt effect is lost there.